The conjunction fallacy: Judgmental heuristic or faulty extensional reasoning?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuri...
متن کاملKansei Versus Extensional Reasoning: The Scientific Illusion of The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Introduction Subsequent to the investigations of Tversky and Kahneman (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) it is well known that judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by specific scientific natural laws. For example, according to the conjunction rule a conjunction can be more representative than one of its constituents, and instances of a specific categ...
متن کاملCommentary: Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and .P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heur...
متن کاملNoise in Reasoning as a Cause of the Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunction A&B as more likely than a constituent A, contrary to the rules of probability theory. We describe a model where this fallacy arises purely as a consequence of noise and random error in the probability estimation process. We describe an experiment testing this proposal by assessing the relationship between fallacy rates and the avera...
متن کاملThe conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?
It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems. © 2004 Cog...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society
سال: 1986
ISSN: 0090-5054
DOI: 10.3758/bf03330544